WERE FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS WRONG?

Just few months ago when SBP decided to restrict money supply again, there was a lot of concern in the market and market at that time was trading at 10,000 level. Many thought that market will take correction but that just didn't happen, infact, market surged by 20% and today it breached 12,000 level after more than two years. I still remember technical analysts were still bullish at that time and it seems they proved to be right.

Actually, we need to see our region first, all regional countries like China, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh are trading at a multiple of 16-24 while we are still around 8-10 region. So the foreign investors who can borrow Euro/Dollar at just 1%-2% rate found our market attractive. Remember our Rupee is very stable and it is expected to remain atleast for one year so the foreginers can invest with confidence.

Finally, also note the key point, our multiple hasn't changed much despite market upsurge. Why? Mathematically, denominator of "P/E" which is earnings also kept increasing and this has kept market multiple downward and still at 8-10 range which is still at a very discounted value.

The conclusion is that "true fundamental investors" were not wrong and they expected this market upsurge and in fact there is still upside remaining as per them. I also consider myself as a fundamental investor and I will very soon come up with market range for the year 2011 very soon as my upper range for 2010 was "11,200" and market has already breached this level.

WHERE IS CORRECTION?

Many investors are confused as they were not expecting the market to reach 11,900 on Dec 2010. To be honest, I also was not expecting this. As you all know my target was 11,200. This is certainly not the right time to enter in the market. I will come up with my target for 2011 very soon but for right now I believe it is better to be on a defensive side.

Amid of current political drama with MQM threatening to go out of Government and we know if this happened then law and order situation of Karachi which is already not good might get worse. Secondly rising oil prices, no news of leverage product, rising interest rates, and high fiscal deficit, nothing is good for market right now. Wait here, then why the market has performed until now? What has driven the market then? The answer is "Corporate Profitability". Companies has posted very good results and this is the most fundamental driver of any stock market. But for right now, I believe even corporate profitability might not be able to drive the market further up. We need some good news regarding the issues I discussed above. Therefore I believe correction should come at this stage with market hovering around 11,900 level and this correction would be healthy for the market to sustain an upward trend.

Thanks and Good Luck with your investments.

MARKET AT 11,400: BOOK YOUR PROFITS

Market was at 9,781 level when I posted my first article on this blog on July 07, 2010. Last Friday on 3 December, 2010 KSE 100 closed at 11,400. This is equivalent to around 16.5% return and this return is excluding dividends and if you roughly include dividends of let us say just 3% (however dividend return might be slightly higher for most of the shares that I recommended) then the total return becomes around 20% and this is just in six months period. Isn’t it wonderful? Market has certainly performed brilliantly during this period. However if you are following my blog then it must be in you knowledge that my upper limit for market is 11,200-11,500 and this is exactly where market has reached now. I would suggest profit taking at this level and if you don’t want to book your profits then at least don’t buy at this level if you have any excess cash. You should have 50-65% cash in hand right now. Wait for the market dip and then buy. There is no fundamental change and I believe 11,200-11,500 is a level where market does not look very attractive. For short term, market is facing following issues that could put the market in a declining zone:

• We still don’t know about the leverage product, it’s characteristics and it’s time of implementation.
• RGST is a hot issue and we don’t know whether government will be able to impose it or not.
• Both the above-mentioned issues create uncertainly and I hope you know that very well “Market hates uncertainty”.
• Muharrams are just there and there are very serious concerns of law and order during this religious event.
• Because of Christmas season, foreign investor will be almost absent from the market and remember foreign investment has been the key driver of market for the last one and a half year.
  
  

HOW MUCH RISK CAN YOU AFFORD?

I believe this particular article is the best that I have written so far. Sometimes I think you are very lucky because what you are reading is the outcome of my hard work and a hundreds of hours of study and analysis. You are just receiving the result. For you “There is a gain without a pain”. However, the purpose of this article is not to just build your theoretical knowledge of investments but I want you to implement this and think strategically and if not strategically then at least use basic common sense which I put it as “Finance Sense”. I hope this will help you a lot.

People have different attitude towards risk. Some like to take risk and some avoid it. Usually we can safely assume that one who prefers to have a job rather than start his business is someone in a latter category. Because starting business is very risky, but working 8-10 hrs/day, insure that you will receive your cheque at the end of the month without any “risk” which means you know at the start of the month how much you will get at the end of month. However, in a business, you are not that much sure, any thing can happen, at the extreme levels you could make millions or you could loose everything that you have. Since most of the people in our world belong to this second (risk avoiding category) I can safely assume that most of my readers also belong to this second category. This article is written in keeping their views in mind. However, that does not mean at all that this article is not for business people.

The fact of the matter is that even those who want to avoid risk cannot avoid it all. They can lose their job, the inflation is 10-15% here in Pakistan and they would not be able to save enough for their retirement, they might not be able to reach their goal like purchasing new home etc, accumulate enough wealth and the last but not the least there is a mortality risk and in order to manage these risks efficiently you need to invest efficiently, i.e. invest where you have an ability & desire to invest. If risk avoider is not planning his financial matters then I believe that he is actually unknowingly taking a huge risk.

Now I am coming to the point, here are some of the basic ways of investing:

1) Invest in a Company
2) Invest directly in a Country/economy
3) Invest indirectly in Country’s economy i.e. invest in Stock Mutual Fund
4) Invest in Corporate Bonds/Fixed-Income Mutual Fund
5) Invest in a Commercial Bank/National Savings

If you are risky and young then you can choose a first option, (I would suggest you to read my previous article “Young Investor: Minimum Diversification” to apprehend this article completely). When you invest in just two or three companies there is a fair amount of risk (and hence return, remember the basic premise of finance: higher the potential risk higher the potential return). However, since you are a relatively risky and most importantly you are young and you have stable income you can certainly take this risk because this risk could be very rewarding for you in a long term.

If you consider yourself as risk avoider (risk averse) then you can choose a second option. Invest in 15-20 companies from different sectors, which should be the representatives of country’s economy. If you believe your country will survive then we can safely say the risk in this investment is much less than the previous one. Put it simply; instead of investing in few companies invest in the economy.

If you consider yourself as high-risk avoider (highly risk averse) then we still have a solution, buy a stock mutual fund. Stock Mutual Fund invests in stock market but their investment is much diversified and the money is managed by professionals. So if you are afraid of stock market and do not want to directly invest then this should be the right option. Remember they charge a fee. As per my knowledge there are around 27 Asset Management companies working in Pakistan.

If you are very high risk avoider then believe me, we still have a solution. There are two ways to invest in a company, you can buy its equity (shares) or you can give it debt, which means you can buy bonds. We all know very well that company first pay its creditors and then what is left over is paid to shareholders. Therefore, if you have bought a debt of a company then you should be rest assured that this is the least risky option of all. Because this is a fixed-income. Now let me also tell you that you can buy company’s debt directly if you can get an opportunity (Engro has recently launched Engro Rupiya offering a rate of 14.5% and even small investors can purchase this bond) but directly investing in company debt is not that much easy for small investors. Nevertheless, you can still invest in debt market by investing in a Fixed-Income Mutual Fund. These mutual funds invest in fixed income instruments and you can get a decent return, however, the expected return is less than a Stock Mutual Fund.

Finally, If you are the “Maha Risk Avoider” then actually you don’t need any advice because I hope you would have been very happily invested in an commercial bank or national saving scheme at the rate of 7%-11% which is not very bad for “Maha” risk avoider.

I thank for your patience but we are not done yet. What I really want is that one should be able to understand the importance of categorizing oneself in term of how risky he is and then invest accordingly. If you have ability and desire to invest aggressively then you should not end up investing in commercial bank for just 10%. I have no problems with “Risk Avoiders”, as far as they behave like Risk Avoiders as I stated earlier that even they sometimes unknowingly take a big risk.

Consider a simple case of how mismanagement of your wealth through not recognizing your risk category can lead you to invest inappropriately.

As an example, consider the after tax return from three strategies:

1) Stock Market Return for an “average” diversified Investor/Mutual Fund = 20%
2) Fixed Income Return/Bond from Corporate Sector = 15%
3) Return from commercial bank = 10%

Remember the return of stock market is used as a proxy of what an average investor could achieve, the return for different investors may be different i.e. for some investors it could be 40% and for some it could be 10% but over a long-term 20% return should not be a big deal if you or your stock mutual fund is an average investor.

Now suppose you have 100,000 Rupees, which you want to invest for 35 years for your retirement. Just check out the payoff of these different strategies after 35 years:

Stock Market = 59,066,823
Fixed Income = 13,317,552
Bank = 2,810,244

By showing these payoff (where the payoff of Stock Market is 4.5 and 19 times more than fixed income and bank respectively), I am not implying that you should invest in Stock Market. But what I want to tell you is that if some one had the ability & desire to take risk but end up investing in bank then his payoff will be just 4.7% and 21% of what he could had by investing in stock market and fixed income respectively. If you are “Maha Risk Avoider” and invest in bank then there is no problem at all. However, if you had marginal ability & desire to take risk but did not invest in fixed income, or you had good ability & desire to take risk but did not invest in stock market, then there is a problem.

Note that the calculations are shown for 35 year but the conclusion would be the same for any time horizon. Secondly, I am not implying that one should have a horizon of 35 years. You could have a different investment horizon e.g. 10 yrs or 20 yrs. However, remember this study is for long-term investment only (10yrs-35yrs). Let me stress this again, I am not saying that you should invest for 35 years.

Finally, the fact is, most people use a combination of these investments. Thus, the question should not be “Should I invest in Stock Market or Fixed Income or Commercial Bank? The correct question should be “In what proportion should I invest in Stock Market, Fixed Income and Commercial Bank/National Saving”? The answer of this question as described depends on you risk taking ability and desire. As an example, you could choose the allocation of 40%-40%-20% in Stock Market, Fixed Income and Commercial Bank respectively or if you have ability and desire to take risk then your allocation could be 70%-20%-10%.

Note: As an investment professional, I try to share as much as possible of what I have learned from my short experience of two and a half years or so. I believe field of investment is very dynamic and there is a lot of room for further discussion. Even investment professionals might disagree with me on some points. However, this is how this field is.

You can post a comment if you have any question or you can send me an email at tahiradeel001@yahoo.com.

ISSUE OF RGST: NOT AS SIMPLE

The government wants to impose RGST as soon as possible but given the fact that even government coalition partners are now dissenting it has created a lot of confusion. The impact of RGST issue is not that clear on stock market. Let me briefly explain you why it is like that.

If government somehow manages to impose RGST inflation will shoot up and some believe that for some time it might reach near 20%, remember it’s hovering around 15%-16% right now. Therefore, this is the negative point of RGST for the stock market. However, there is a positive point as well, we will be to able to receive our next tranche of IMF of Rs. 1.7billion after which only 1.7 billion remains which we will receive afterwards plus we will also be able to be in a better position to get grants/donations/loans from other foreign institutions. Foreign institutions want to see out tax to GDP ratio higher (which is just 8% much lower than regional countries). Secondaly, as we all know one the main problem of our economy is fiscal deficit and it is because of this reason Govt is borrorwing heavily from Private Banks and State Bank and crowding out investment, after imposition of RGST fiscal deficit could be improved. Therefore, if RGST is imposed there is a disadvantage (inflation) and advantage (increased revenue for government). Similarly if it is not imposed then there will be no inflation but we would not be able to receive further loans that easily.

As you must have noticed, the situation seems to be tricky and it is not that easy to predict the impact of RGST on market. It seems both impact can cancel out each other and there would be no impact on market but that would be the case only when two impacts are equal in importance. It is not easy to say which impact is more important. However, the only thing that I can say in this situation to investors is to remain cautious and do not over invest in market at this moment.

Let me also inform that SBP has announced its monetary policy today and decided to increase discount rate by 50bps so now the benchmark rate has reached 14%. The possible impact of this decision on market have already been explained in previous post.

Please note that if any positive news regarding leverage product enters the market then I expect that market will further go up because un like the other two issues (RGST, Discount rate) leverage product is directly related to the market.

NOVEMBER 2010 MONETARY POLICY

SBP is to be announed its decision regarding discount rate. The expectations in the market are that 50bps increase in discount rate is higly likely which will cause discount rate to reach 14%. The reason for this increase is high inflation (around 15%) and possible hike in inflaton after RGST, plus the amount of government borrowing is also not decreasing at all. However, some believe that SBP needs to understand that it can not control "CPI Inflation" consisted of consumer items simply by increasing discount rate. This is exactly what we have seen. SBP non-expansionary stance is not depressing inflation at all. If SBP has realized that then there is a chance that it might not increase rate. However the chances of this are very minimal.

POSSIBLE IMPACT ON MARKET:

The 50bps increase is expected in the market so if increase in discount rate is less than this then it would be positive for the market and in case of change of more than 50 bps market is expected to be negatively impacted.

YOUNG INVESTORS: LESS DIVERSIFICATION CAN BE ACCEPTABLE

If you are in your 20s and suppose you want to retire at the age of 60 years then we can safely assume that you have around 35 years to work.

We read in finance that diversification is the key and based on some international research it is recommended that you need to have at least 15-20 shares in your portfolio. However there is also a view that being a young investor you should invest in a promising and relatively young and risky company/companies simply because you have capacity to do so or if we use pure finance language then your risk tolerance should be high. You don’t need much diversification right now actually.

Let me explain this with a case. Suppose you are 25 years old and have a stable job and you want to build your portfolio for your investment. Suppose you picked three relatively young companies with promising outlook from promising industries like Power, Textile, IT, etc. If even one of the company becomes a successful venture then you can make a lot of money. You shouldn’t think of yourself as an investor in stock market but as an investor in individual company or companies, feel as an owner of a company. Off course, these young companies must be very cheap right now and you can purchase many shares cheaply. In addition, it is possible for you to get a 0.5-1% ownership in these companies, which is a very big stake in a company if you check the number of outstanding shares of even small companies in stock market, they are in millions and total market value of one company is in billions.


Consider the attached figure. What does this figure imply? It shows that as you gets older your investment in your chosen company (or companies like we supposed above) as a proportion of your total investment decreases. When you are 25 years old your investment is entirely in your chosen company or companies. But as you get old, you start diversifying your portfolio. This graph is just an example and the exact shape of graph could be different for different investors depending on their attitude towards risk. But the principle is the same for all which is “As you get older you capacity to take risk decreases”. When you reach 60 and now you are totally dependent on income from your portfolio, you surely can’t put all your eggs in one basket. As you can see at the age of 60, your investment in one company is very small because now you have many companies in your portfolio. In fact at the age of 60 you shouldn’t be entirely invested in stock market but should have some decent portion (or even majority) of your portfolio in fixed-income.

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Kse 100 Index is hovering around 10,900 level. Off course investor have made profits. However in order to further go up market needs three things which are (in priority):

1. Market needs a "Leverage Product" as soon as possible.
2. If the discount rate is held constant (at 13.5) in an upcoming monetary policy to be announced at the end of this month.

3. Issue of RGST should be resolved peacefully. In case if this is not implemented there is a very strong chance that Pakistan won't receive it's next tranche from IMF and further this could impede other aids as well.

But let me stress this again "Leverge Product seems to be the key trigger atleast for the short term".

Thanks and Good Luck with your investments.

You can post a comment if you have any question or you can send me an email at tahiradeel001@yahoo.com.

FX RESERVES AT ALL TIME HIGH

In my last blog, when I was discussing reasons of recent market rally there was one important point that I should have included which is related to FX Reserves.

It should be remembered that FX Reserves are generally good for economy and are positively related to Stock Market (Please note that this relationship might not be like that in developed economies but in emerging economies this relationship is generally true) because it is from FX reserves that the country could pay for it’s imports, pay back it’s foreign debt etc. Remember in 2008 when our FX Reserves were at their lowest our country was near to default and it was the same time when we entered in IMF Program. Off course, we all know that it was also the time when Stock Market started to go down which eventually end up with the bizarre incident when Government decided to impose a Floor. So, the point is that healthy FX reserves are good for emerging economies and this factor also have a strong positive effect on Stock Market.

Currently Pakistan FX Reserves are at their all time high of 17 billion. Given the fact that our imports are roughly 34 billion we have an import cover of around 6 months. This economic indicator is certainly positive. The most important aspect of FX Reserves is related to the stability of Currency, the more the FX reserves the more stable (and so less risky for foreign investors) the currency will be, and we do know very well Pak currency is relatively stable. Off course it will depreciate, but more importantly it will depreciate with stability and certainity. Most in analyst community believes that Rupee will depreciate between 5-8% per year as I mentioned in my earlier post.

However many analysts are not excited with this news because they believe that these FX reserves are accumulated from borrowed money (from IMF) which we eventually need to pay back. It would have been more positive if we could achieve these reserves with earned money (exports, remittances, foreign investment, etc). Remember we have already received around 7.4 billion and we will receive remaining 3.6 billion with in a next few months from IMF.

MARKET OUTLOOK:

I hope investors would be doing good with their investments. Today market closed at 10,703. Investors with diversified portfolio should be doing good. Small-moderate correction may take place though. However as an Investor we should focus on medium-long term trend and as an Financial Analyst this is exactly what I do. Short term market fluctuations is very hard to predict and no one can be absolutely sure about it.

Thanks and Good Luck with your investments. You can post a comment if you have any question or you can send me an email at tahiradeel001@yahoo.com.

Bullish Market with Shaking Fundamentals

First, let me describe the relation between Interest rates, Inflation and Stock Market. The relation is very simple, increase in interest rates are inversely related to Stock Market Valuations. Increase in interest rates has negative effect on Stock Market. Secondly, Inflation is also negative for market because generally interest rates increase is associated with increase in inflation.

Now what happened in Pakistan is that growing inflation has caused SBP to increase interest rates. In their September Monetary Policy, SBP has announced the increase in discount rate by further 0.5%. So now, the discount rate has reached 13.5%. Keep in mind that just before April 2009 when this same discount rate was at 15%, market was hovering around 4000-5000 level. However that low of market was not just because of discount rate but there were some other issues were there as well like investors sentiment had not recovered from imposition of “Floor” by government. However, what I want to say is that this discount rate is very important for stock market valuation.

The figures for September show that Inflation has now reached 15.7%. Discount rate is 13.5% and most in Analyst Community believe that further increase in discount rate and inflation can be seen. Inflation can increase b/c of following issues:

1. Floods have decreased the supply of food items, causing an increase in their prices.
2. Imposition of reformed GST will also increase inflation.
3. Increase in Power Tariffs due to withdrawals of subsidies will also increase inflation.

WHAT ABOUT MARKET:

It seems that market has completely ignored the current scenario. Many believed that market would show negative-neutral reaction to SBP recent Monetary Policy Stance. However, market has actually shown a positive reaction. Today on 14th October, market crossed 10,400. Many investors wonder why and how?

To be very honest, I am also surprised. I didn’t sell my shares though but I stopped new buying. Following could be the reasons of this rally:

1. Foreign investors are continuously buying.
2. Leverage product is expected in market. (Which means investors will be able to borrow money to buy shares).
3. Floods effects are temporary and they will be reduced with time. Further they will have a positive effects for short-medium term on cement sector (because of re construction activities), fertilizer sector (floods increase water level and enhance productivity), and pharmaceutical sector (flood victims are having health problems).
4. Reformed GST and increase in Power Tariffs will also have a temporary effect on Inflation and dust will settle down few months after reformed GST is implemented and Power Tariffs increased.
5. Companies have posted very good results.

MY RECOMMENDATION:

My advice is simple; if you are a salaried class investor with diversified portfolio (having many stocks) then don’t worry and keep investing in good blue chip and selective undervalued second tier and third tier companies as well. If a market takes a dip, you can buy shares at cheap prices with your next monthly saving from salary. If market keeps going up, keep investing until market reaches around 11,000. However, if you are not a salaried class or don’t invest periodically in market then I will recommend a very cautious stance. Because “FUTURE SITUATION IS NOT AS CERTAIN AS CURRENT SITUATION” and current situation isn’t very good and market can take a dip. Once a market takes a dip (small dip of 200-400 is very likely though as per my expectation) they can invest. Currently they should keep 25-35% of their money as Cash.

Remember as per my expectation market’s level should be between 9000-11200 level.

Thanks and Good Luck with your investments. You can post a comment if you have any question or you can send me an email at tahiradeel001@yahoo.com.

Investment Strategy For a Salaried Class Investors

To be precise, if you are young are have a permanent and stable job then believe me investing in Stock Market is not that difficult for you. In fact you would be very unfortunate if you don't invest in stock market. Why? The most obvious reason to invest in Stock Market is Inflation. Inflation has been around 10-12 percent thourghout the history of pakistan and it will remain in the same zone in future. So if you are investing your saving at less than 10 percent for your future then actually you are losing value in real terms. As per the study done by a large brokerage house Pakistani Stock Market has given an average annual return of 31 percent for the last 10 years. (Ref: See Investor Guide on thefinancialdaily.com).

If you are afraid of volatility in Stock Market then this volatility is not a problem for you because you are young and can afford fluctuations since your ultimate purpose is to save for your future.

Consider a simple case:

Suppose you decide to enter in the market at current level which is around 9,800. You start putting saving from your salary in the stock market at the end of every month. You target is 11,000-11,500. That is you will take all your money out of the stock market once you reach this point. Now this point has 26 percent upside potential so any thing that put right now will give you 26 percent in future at some point in time. Now suppose at the end of the next month the market is at 9,200 level and stocks have come down. So what should you do? Actually this shouldn't be a problem for you, infact now you got same stocks more cheaply. Suppose you bought POL for 230 earlier and now you can get it for 220 so your average become 225. And suppose if the market goes up in the second month and again reached at 9,800 level and your PPL again reach 230. You have made a profit now because your average is 225. However your ultimate target is in 11,000 range so your startegy is very simple i.e. you buy more shares when market goes down and you sell shares when market reaches 11,000-11,500 level. But please note that you need to keep some common rules. First you need diversification and second always have some "know-how" of stocks, market and economy or you should take advise from your broker or any other market expert.

Conclusion: Averaging solves the problem of volatility. And since salaried class don't invest all of their money at the same point in time they naturally can average out their investments.

Best of Luck!

Monetary Policy: Who Is Responsible For Poor Economic Situation?

We are in a very unfortunate situation. A very simple economics tells us that Central Bank reduces money growth to curtail economic growth because too speedy economic growth will dry up the resources and that will induce the inflation.

In Pakistan, Central Bank has reduced money growth by increasing discount rate. Why? To curtail economic growth? Actually, we don't have a substantial growth. Last year (FY 2010) we achieved a growth rate of just 4.1 percent. While we compared this to our neighbours like India (8 percent) and China (9 percent) we are actually nowhere so why did Central Bank increase rate?

This can best be explained in points:

1. The Govt borrowing is exceeding it's limit and this borrowing is for Consumption purposes rather than Investment purposes.

2. Because of electricity shortages and poor law and order situation, the investment is very minimal. Therefore supply is limited and not increasing.

3. Govt borrowing is crowding out the private investment.

4. With no increase in supply, and continuous increase in Govt borrowing which is creating consumption led demand, inflation is increasing which is 12.7 percent for FY 10.

Therefore SBP has no option but to curtail this consumption led demand which will ease pressure on inflation.

This has been a story. As the above points clearly shows that Fiscal Deficit was the real problem. But the increase in interest rate will definitely slow our growth further which means this year we will see a growth rate much lower than 4.1 percent which imply poor economic conditions.

Who is responsible for it? Government? Surely it is. Government need to increase its resources from somewhere else like Tax. Remember Pakistan's Tax to GDP ratio is lowest in the world with around 8 percent. Government also needs to reduce corruption. The total Government borrowing from SBP in FY 2010 was 1,171 billion while the target was only 1,130 billion. The Government also borrowed Rs. 330 billion from commercial banks. So it left no money for private sector to borrow. Private Sector creates more jobs than Govt Sector. Private sector uses money more efficiently than Govt Sector. There is less corruption in Private Sector than Govt Sector. But very unfortunately Govt is borrowing all the money and the worse thing is that the Govt is not investing this money but most of this borrowing is to meet current expenditures (You can verify this by reading the monetary policy statement available on SBP website) which doesn't create jobs.

Surely, we got the answer. Who is responsible for this bad economic situation?

New Market Range: 9,000-11,400

With the unexpected decision of SBP to increase discount rate market fundamentals have certainly changed. I believe with the current macro-economic situation the range of KSE 100 should be 9,000-11,400 i.e. upper range is reduced by 800 points. I believe investors should book most of their profits as market reach 11,400.

There is no significant change in the Target Prices of individual shares that I recommended so Investors can still follow them. However as I have told you, be cautious now and do book your profits whenever you got them.

You can compare the current share prices of my recommended stocks with the prices when I recommended them on 7th July, 2010. Investors who took position with all those shares must have got good returns as most of the shares have appreciated well.

Monetary Policy: SBP Increases Discount Rate by 50bps

As I told you in my last post that general consensus among analysts was that discount rate will be unchanged and will be held constant 12.5%. Unfortunately SBP surprises the financial market with the decision to increase discount rate by 50bps i.e. now the discount rate is 13% for the next two months.

SBP attributed this increase in rate to the "inflation concerns" and growing "fiscal deficit" (reaching at almost 6% of GDP). Remember inflation for the fiscal year 2010 was recorded to be 11.73%. SBP expects inflation to be around 11-12% for the next fiscal year.

This will have a devastating impact on the Market as this action wasn't expected as 90% of analyst were not expecting this. The range of Market plus the Target prices of Shares that I recommended will all change because of this action. Investors are advised to be cautious (as they always should be in Pakistani Market and that is one of the reason that I told to always book profits in Pak Market in my previous post). Long Term Investors don't need to panic, just to remind them Pakistani stock market at 10,500 level is still a cheapest market in the region. However now all investors need to be highly cautious and now should try to sell shares that have appreciated in value. Just to remind them all of the shares that I recommended have gone up (except PACE).

Good Luck!

Monetary Policy: Discount rate will be held Constant

Monetary Policy is to be announced on 30th July by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). It should be remembred that SBP now announced Monetary Policy after every two months.

As we all know current discount rate (federal funds rate in USA) is 12.5% and the consensus among analysts is that it will again be unchanged for two more months.

It is important to note that discount rate is still on a higher side but SBP is cautious to bring it down because of concern of Inflation.

There is no impact of this upcoming Monetary Policy on Stock Market because the outcome of the same is already discounted and expected in the Market.

Rupee Depreciation: Should not be a Cause of Concern for Foreign Investors

Depreciation of Pak Rupee is one of the most important risk factor that Foreign Investors analyze. However because of the fact that Pakistan economy is certainly improving Currency Risk is not a significant concern for Foreign Investors.

Currently the exchange rate is 85Rs/$. The consensus among analysts by keeping in view the Inflation, Interest rates and macro economic situation is that Rupee will depreciate by 5%-6% annually, and the chances of unexpected high depreciation in Rupee is very minor. So, the conclusion is Foregin Investors shouldn't hesitate to invest in Stock Market.

LOTPTA and ICI: Seems to be Good Investment

LOTPTA and ICI Pakistan are also at very attractive levels and seems to be Good Investment for future.

Company Name: LOTTE Pakistan (LOTPTA)
Industry: Petro Chemicals
Current Price: 8.37
Target Price: 12
Expected Return: 43%

Company Name: ICI
Industry: Chemicals
Current Price: 118.60
Target Price: 140
Expected Return: 18%

Disclosure: The information described here is taken from the general Analyst expectations as they expressed it in TV Channels and websites. I don't follow both of these stocks. I may have holding of these stocks. Infact mostly I recommend only those shares that I personally purchased.

Exports At All Times High

Pakistan's Exports recorded an all time high in dollar terms for the fiscal year 2010. Exports in 2010 were 19.38 billion. Data with comparison to last year is as follows:
2009
Exports 17.7
Imports 34
Trade Deficit 17
2010
Exports 19.38
Imports 34
Trade Deficit 15

As we can see Trade Deficit has been reduced by almost 12%. This is a very good news and shows that macro economic situation is improving.
For foreign investors this is a very important news because that means Pakistan's Currency doens't not poses any significant risk for investment.

IMPORTANT INVESTMENT TECHNIQUE FOR PAK STOCK MARKET

Before discussing the investment technique, let me inform you that KSE 100 is having a bull run and this week it closed at almost 10,000. All of the shares that I recommended are going very well, especially POL which has gone to 222. As I have already told you market is still well below its upper limit of 12,000, therefore those investors who haven’t taken the positions can still enter in the market and make profits, so good luck with that. Now we discuss an important investment technique that will help you in getting decent return from KSE 100.

As we all know one thing that is always found in emerging stock markets is “Volatility”. Same is the case with Pakistani stock market. So how can we deal with it? The only way you can deal with this is to book your profits, i.e. sell your shares whenever they appreciate even if you have hold them for a medium to long term perspective. This is how you can increase your return. Don’t sell your entire position but just part of your position. This can be explained easily by two simple examples. (Note: Keep in mind, this strategy should be worked with main stocks i.e. Blue Chip Stocks in our language, all the shares that I recommended are blue chip stocks except PACE Pakistan).

Example 1: When you don’t book the part of your profit.
You bought 100 shares of POL at 200 with the target price of 250.

Investment = 20,000
Expected Return = 25%

If you purchase shares for Rs, 20,000 and when shares reach it’s target price after one year you sell it off and get 25,000. This is equivalent to 25% return.

Initial Investment = 20,000
Final Outcome as cash = 25,000
Gain = 5,000
Return = 25%

Example 2: When you book part of your profit.

Investment = 20,000

Now suppose after 3 months, one share of POL is at 225. You sell 25 shares at this price. So your inflow is 5,625.

Value of your investment after 3 months = (225*75) +5,625 = 22,500.

So now after three months you have 5,625 at your hand as cash and you have 75 shares of POL invested in your portfolio. Now suppose b/c of some political noise or b/c of some general profit taking (like you, many investors will sell their shares and book profit and this can push market downward) market has gone down and share of POL is now trading at 210. Now is the time for you to get the shares again. You have 5,625 in hand so you can buy 5,625/210 = 27 shares of POL (earlier you sold 25 shares but now you have bought 27, i.e. 2 more shares and now you have 75+27 = 102 shares). Suppose 9 more months have passed at now share of POL is of 250 that is, it has reached its target price. So now you sell your entire position. You will get back 102*250 = 25,500.

Initial Investment = 20,000
Final Outcome as Cash = 25,500
Gain = 5,500
Return = 27.5%.

Now as we can see you have increase you gain by 10%, yes by 10%. (500/5000) = 10%

This is the gain by simply booking the profit just one time; you may even get more than one opportunity to book profit and in that case you return will compound and would be much greater than this 27.5%. And with the volatility of KSE 100, this is certainly possible.

I don’t think the mathematics behind this is complex to understand. See the Chart showing the price of any share for the last year and simulate the above mentioned strategy and see the magic for yourself.

Disclosure: The above technique can not always give you extra return as we always say that in Portfolio Management lot of variables influence the market and result of different strategies. The above technique is some thing that I have found to be useful and have worked for me many times, that’s why I shared it with you. The results of above mentioned surely can not be guaranteed and Investors can try this on their own responsibility. I will not have any responsibility for the failure of above mentioned strategy. The example that I have presented is an assumed scenario for explaining the strategy.

BRIEF INTRODUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF KSE 100

Greetings Everyone,

This Blog is initiated to assist both Local and International Investors who want to invest their money in Pakistani Stock Market or more precisely Karachi Stock Exchange which is the largest stock exchange of the country. The benchmark that we will use is KSE 100 Index which represents the performance of top 100 companies in the country. It should be noted that KSE 100 is a market weighted Index (which means that company with more market capitalization has more influence on the stock market). It should also be noted that OGDC which is the oil and gas exploration company has the largest share in KSE 100 market capitalization and therefore its movement affects the KSE 100 most. For now I believe this introduction in enough. I will be talking in detail for every aspect of Market in the coming days however at this moment let’s switch to analytical work which can help your investment decision.

MARKET ANALYSIS:

The cheapest market in the region trading at a multiple of around 7 has many investment opportunities and stock picking is not very difficult for now. As per my calculation with current macro economic situation (Pakistan achieved an Economic Growth of 4.1% in the fiscal year 2010) the market has a lower limit of 9,000 and upper limit of 12,200. That is, as long as market is near 9,000 market is certainly offering an expected return of around 30%. That also implies that investors should start booking profit as market starts approaching 12,000. It should be kept in mind that 12,200 is an upper limit this is the most where market can reach, if market faces an extreme bullish activity.

Today, on July 6, 2010 KSE 100 closed at 9,781. Which implies that investor can certainly invest in the market because market is far below from 12,200 and near to its lower limit of 9,000.

Risks to the Market: I do not see any particular economic risk to the market, but there are two non-economic risks that can hurt market’s sentiments. One is Law and Order and second is the on-going tussle between Government (and more particularly ruling party of Pakistan People Party) and Judiciary. Some corruption cases of Pakistan’s President Mr. Asif Ali Zardari are under the court hearing. About the former risk, with the successful military operation in South Waziristan, law and order situation has been improving. As far as second risk is concerned, as we all know this has the least effect on Country’s economy because political in-stability is actually a rule rather than a exception here in Pakistan. Therefore I believe unless this matter get worse will have no effect on the market.

Opportunities in the Market: With the upcoming leverage product we believe market sentiments will improve in the market and since we are the cheapest market in the region and also trading at around 22% discount to our historical average market is certainly very attractive.

Since this is my first article, it has gone a bit long but my future analysis (which would be bi-weekly in general unless situation warrant more) would not be as longer and I would be just guiding you with your portfolio management while discussing important economic and financial matters.

Now here is the list of my recommended stocks with their brief details including current price and target price. It should be noted here that these target prices are supposed to achieve within one year. In future I would also present more details regarding these individual shares.

Company Name: Pakistan Oil Fields (POL)
Industry: Oil and Exploration
Current Price: 215.58
Target Price: 246
Expected Return: 14.46

Company Name: Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
Industry: Oil and Exploration
Current Price: 186.75
Target Price: 202
Expected Return: 8

Company Name:Attock Petroleum (APL)
Industry:Oil and Marketing
Current Price: 289.77
Target Price: 352
Expected Return: 21.3

Company Name: Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
Industry: Oil and Marketing
Current Price: 261.03
Target Price: 327
Expected Return: 25.3%

Company Name: Lucky Cement (LUCK)
Industry: Cement
Current Price: 63.46
Target Price: 78
Expected Return: 24%

Company Name: Dear Ghazi Khan Cement
Industry: Cement
Current Price: 24.43
Target Price: 32
Expected Return: 33%

Company Name: Bank Al Falah
Industry: Banking
Current Price: 9.19
Target Price: 14
Expected Return: 41

Company Name: National Bank of Pakistan (NBP)
Industry: Banking
Current Price: 64.75
Target Price: 75
Expected Return: 16

Company Name: Engro Corporation (ENGRO)
Industry: Fertilizer, Chemicals, Foods
Current Price: 176.17
Target Price: 208
Expected Return:18

Company Name: PACE
Industry: Real Estate
Current Price: 3.71
Target Price: 6
Expected Return: 62%

I strongly recommend investors not to invest all their money in just one stock or two stocks but should diversify portfolio in many stocks. This is how you portfolio performance will be based on the movement of market (which as we have already mentioned is represented as KSE 100 Index) rather the performance of individual stock. I follow these 10 stocks so you should at least invest in these 10 stocks. I selected these stocks because these are the stocks with the highest turnover (except PACE) in the market and also highly undervalued and offer very good expected return and are followed by most of the research analysts (except PACE which is not followed by many analysts but only by few). It should kept in mind that there may be many stocks in KSE 100 which may offer more expected return than this but since no research analyst and no investor can understand all the shares individually, keeping your focus on few (with keeping diversification in mind as well, i.e. few means that are just enough to diversify our portfolio appropriately) will serve our purpose.

For now, this analysis is enough. I will be discussing about these matters in future.

Disclosure: The above analysis is done to the best of my knowledge which I got from personal research. It is not possible for me to cite any references because I got this information from many resources including TV Channels, research reports and personal communication with market experts.

This material is written to guide investors in their decision making. Investors are supposed to be knowledgeable enough to understand the inherent risks in the market and use this analysis as one of the input in their decision making. There is certainly no guarantee that the above mentioned analysis is absolutely correct. This is certainly not a rocket science and forecasts may not realize.

I may have personal holdings in these stocks, in fact the stocks that I follow are usually the one in which I am personall invested.